Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

The fractal branching of an arborescent sponge

The fractal properties of specimens of a planar branching sponge Raspailia inaequalis (Porifera, Demospongiae) were determined by analysing digitised photographs. The specimens, collected from a single site in northeastern New Zealand, had a wide range of morphology. Three different fractal methods were used: box counting; a method that gives the scaling of branch length with distance from the base of the fan; and an allometric analysis of the dependence of frontal area on specimen size. All three approaches gave a similar value for the fractal dimension. The conjecture that the specimens have a fractal branching structure is consistent with the results of a Horton analysis of their branching pattern. There is a significant relationship between fractal dimension and number of fingers, which implies that a simple count of the number of fingers is as useful for discriminating between individuals as the more complex fractal analysis. Using this relation, sponges from a site with less water movement are inferred to have a lower fractal dimension. This result is in agreement with the predictions of the Kaandorp model of sponge growth. Received: 13 March 2000 / Accepted: 11 October 2000     

REVIEW OF A SEVENTEEN-YEAR CHLOROPHYLL RECORD AS IT PERTAINS TO THE TROPIIIC STATUS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: A 17-year record of chlorophyll a at eight limnetic sampling stations was used to evaluate putative changes in the trophic status of Lake Okeechobee, a shallow polymictic lake located in the subtropical environment of South Florida. Significant spatial differences were observed in the temporal patterns and variability of chlorophyll a concentrations. The highest chlorophyll a values were found in the northern and northwestern regions of the lake. The center of the lake, subject to high levels of non-algal suspended solids, exhibited relatively low chlorophyll a values and coefficient of variation. The lowest chlorophyll a values were observed at the southernmost sampling station in the lake. This was also the station that showed a significant upward trend in annual mean chlorophyll a values over the 17-year period of record. Examination of the relationship between chlorophyll a and three key environmental variables (i.e., total phosphorus concentration, phosphorus loading, and lake stage) revealed significant correlations at two out of the eight stations. The overall results of this study indicate that spatial and temporal disparities in the distribution and dynamics of chlorophyll a in Lake Okeechobee mandate more temporally and spatially intense approaches to the evaluation of trophic state than used in previous studies.     

The use of Landsat multispectral scanner data for the analysis and management of flooding on the river Severn,England

Remote sensing has emerged as one of the major techniques for the analysis and delineation of large floods. This analysis can provide data invaluable for the hydrological management of large river systems. A need for information on the extent of floodplain inundation for the lower reaches of the largest river in the UK was met by a search through Landsat images of floods and the analysis of the best example recorded. Automated classification of the Landsat imagery of this flood on the river Severn in 1977 was used to provide estimates of the extent and spatial distribution of inundation. Flood images were generated using the Plessey IDP 3000 image processor, and the maps derived accorded well with aerial photography and qualitative flood information. Three distinct floodplain environments were delineated and flood images produced by different spectral bands compared. Specific questions prompted by flood hazard management and concerning the processes and extent of flooding were answered by the Landsat data analysis. Management of the flood risk of large rivers is expensive and remote sensing data is a relatively cheap and effective way of monitoring control works and providing data for the prediction of the effects of future hydrological works. Remote sensing is a practical way in which spatial information concerning the behavior of large dynamic systems can be obtained both quickly and relatively cheaply.     

Performance of poly(vinyl alcohol) gel columns on the ion chromatographic determination of perchlorate in fertilizers

Interest in possible sources of perchlorate (ClO4) that could lead to environmental release has been heightened since the Environmental Protection Agency placed this anion on its Contaminant Candidate List for drinking water. Although recent investigations have suggested that fertilizers are minor contributors to environmental perchlorate contamination overall, there is still interest in screening commercial products for possible contamination and quantitating perchlorate when it is found. Ion chromatography (IC) has been used for this application owing to its speed, low detection limits, widespread availability, and moderate ruggedness relative to other techniques. However, fertilizer matrixes complicate the IC analysis relative to potable water matrixes. In this study, the performance of poly(vinyl alcohol) gel resin IC columns (100 mm and 150 mm) was evaluated for fertilizer matrixes using method EPA/600/R-01/026. The NaOH eluent included an organic salt, sodium 4-cyanophenoxide. Detection was by suppressed conductivity. A set of 55 different field samples representing 48 products and previously used by the EPA to assess occurrence of perchlorate in fertilizers (EPA/600/R-01/049) was reanalyzed on the 150 mm column. The 100 mm column was used to further investigate the positive hits. Both columns gave satisfactory performance in fertilizer matrixes, with spike recoveries (+/- 15%), assured reporting levels (0.5-225 microg g(-1) except for one at 1,000 microg g(-1)), accuracy (relative error < 30% always and most < 15%), and precision [injection-to-injection reproducibility < 3% relative standard deviation (RSD)] comparable to those reported in other studies. Performance did not vary substantially between column lengths. Lastly, the results of this investigation provided further evidence in support of the conclusions that had been reached previously by the EPA on the occurrence of perchlorate in fertilizers.     

EMPIRICAL MODELING OF HYDROLOGIC AND NFS POLLUTANT FLUX IN AN URBANIZING BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Long term effects of precipitation and land use/land cover on basin outflow and nonpoint source (NFS) pollutant flux are presented for up to 24 years for a rapidly developing headwater basin and three adjacent headwater basins on the urban fringe of Washington, D.C. Regression models are developed to describe the annual and seasonal responses of basin outflow and IMPS pollutant flux to precipitation, mean impervious surface (IS), and land use. To quantify annual change in mean IS, a variable called delta IS is created as a temporal indicator of urban soil disturbance. Hydrologic models indicate that total annual surface outflow is significantly associated with precipitation and mean IS (r²= 0.65). Seasonal hydrologic models reveal that basin outflow is positively associated with IS during the summer and fall growing season (June to November). NPS pollutant flux models indicate that total and storm total suspended solids (TSS) flux are significantly associated with precipitation and urban soil disturbance in all seasons. Annual NPS total nitrogen flux is significantly associated with both urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.51). Seasonal models of phosphorus flux indicate a significant association of total phosphorus flux with urban soil disturbance during the growing season. Total soluble phosphorus (TSP) flux is significantly associated with IS (r²= 0.34) and urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.58). In urbanizing Cub Run basin, annual TSP concentrations are significantly associated with IS and cultivated agriculture (r²= 0.51).     

APPLICATION OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A National Pilot Project (NPP) on Livestock and the Environment was initiated in 1992 to help provide solutions to environmental problems associated with livestock production. A major development of the NPP was the Comprehensive Economic and Environmental Optimization Tool‐Livestock and Poultry (CEEOT‐LP), an integrated modeling system designed to produce economic and environmental indicators for alternative policy scenarios applied to intensive livestock production watersheds. The system consists of a farm‐level economic model (FEM) and two environmental models: the field‐scale APEX model and the watershed‐level SWAT model. To date, CEEOT‐LP has been applied to two watersheds in Texas and one in Iowa. Predicted reductions in P losses for two P‐based manure application rate scenarios, relative to baseline conditions, ranged from ?4 to ?54 percent across the three watersheds; however, N loss impacts ranged from a decrease of 34 percent to an increase of 79 percent. For five other alternative scenarios that were simulated for only one watershed, N and P loss impacts ranged between a reduction of 78 percent to an increase of 20 percent. Aggregate watershed‐level economic impacts of the seven scenarios spanned a spectrum of a 27 percent decrease to a 25 percent increase in profit, relative to the baseline.     

DISCHARGE CHARACTERISTICS OF PERFORATED PIPE FOR USE IN INFILTRATION TRENCHES1

ABSTRACT: Infiltration trenches are an effective stormwater management alternative for the control of urban runoff from small areas. Perforated pipes buried within the gravel of an infiltration trench are used to distribute the inflowing runoff along the length of the trench. Laboratory tests are described that characterize the hydraulics of the orifices in perforated pipes. The results show that the steady-state exfiltration of water from the pipe into a surrounding gravel trench can be described by the orifice equation.     

On the relationship between objective increases in pay and employees' subjective reactions

This study explored whether two principles describe the relationship between the size of a pay increase (a bonus expressed as a percentage of current salary) and the attractiveness of that increase. Based on a sample of sales personnel (N = 639) and consistent with the constant proportion principle of the psychophysical law, pay increase attractiveness was unrelated to current salary level after controlling for the size of the percentage increase. In addition, at any given salary level, the relationship between the size of the increase and its attractiveness was curvilinear. The attractiveness of larger and larger bonus percentages continues to increase, but at a decreasing rate supporting the principle of diminishing returns.     

ELECTROPHORETIC WATER CLARIFICATION TECHNIQUES1

Only very recently has a limited amount of attention been focused directly on electrophoresis as a method for improving water quality. This approach has been proposed primarily as a method for removal of suspended colloidal material, although solutes can also be removed by this method. Very simply electrophoresis is defined as the movement of charged suspended particles in a dc electric field. Several electrophoretic clarification systems and techniques have been developed and evaluated primarily for removing colloidal clay from suspension. The methods should apply equally well to any negatively charged particulate matter. Design for optimal clay removal efficiency and operating cost efficiency has been based upon previous theoretical results and upon modification of the combination filter-el ectrophores is model of Bier. These systems and techniques along with the theoretical developments leading to their design are discussed. Results and conclusions are given for tests that have been concluded concerning the feasibility or practicality of these electrophoretic clarification systems for commercial use. These are viewed in light of various limiting factors such as electrical conductivity of the medium, quality of water desired, colloid concentrations and electrophoretic mobility of the suspended materials.